SEC tournament preview
Will the favorites reign, or is there a dark horse in college basketball's deepest conference?
Welcome to our third conference tournament preview of March Madness! We’ll give you a breakdown of the conference tournament structure, the SEC regular season, and five players to watch, plus our favorite bets for the tournament. Let’s get started!
First: the bracket structure and seedings.
The top four teams in the conference standings all receive double byes: #1 Auburn, #2 Florida, #3 Alabama, and #4 Tennessee.
Teams five through eight in the conference standings all receive a bye: #5 Texas A&M, #6 Kentucky, #7 Missouri, and #8 Ole Miss.
The remaining teams face off in first-round games on March 12: #9 Arkansas v. #16 South Carolina, #10 Mississippi State v. #15 LSU, #11 Georgia v. #14 Oklahoma, and #12 Vanderbilt v. #13 Texas.
The championship game will be held Sunday, March 16, at 1:00pm ET on ESPN. A link to the bracket can be found here.
Now, let’s take a quick look at some of the conference favorites.
After holding down the top spot in the AP Top 25 for much of the season, the Auburn Tigers enter the SEC tournament as the #3 team in the country according to the AP voters (behind #1 Duke and #2 Houston). They have also fallen from the top spot in the predictive metrics: #2 in the NET, #2 at KenPom, #3 at ESPN BPI. But we think they should be the top overall seed if they win the SEC tournament - and probably should be anyway. Their sixteen Quad 1 wins are four more than anyone else in the country (Michigan State is next with 12), and, schedule-wise, when compared with Duke’s (the favorite team of the predictive metrics), there really is no comparison. Auburn has played just six games outside the first two quadrants. Duke has played fourteen. Duke has fourteen total wins in the first two quadrants, while, as mentioned, Auburn has sixteen wins just from Quad 1 (21 in Quads 1 and 2). So we think the Tigers are more deserving than the Blue Devils despite what the computer rankings say. Just listen to the quality of wins on the season: Houston (neutral), Iowa State (neutral), Memphis (neutral), Purdue (neutral), Tennessee (home), Alabama (road), and Kentucky (road). And there are plenty more! This team has it all: a bona fide National Player of the Year (Johni Broome), elite perimeter shooting (four regulars shooting 39% or better from three-point range), clutch free throw shooting (three players at 90% FT or better), ball security (just 9.2 turnovers per game), and havoc-causing defense (13.4 combined steals/blocks per game). The only way to beat the Tigers is with an elite offensive performance: in their four losses, they allowed an average of 87.5 points per game.
Florida was expected to be a good team this year. In the preseason, they were ranked AP #21. Then they got off to a 13-0 start and never really looked back, finishing 27-4 in the country’s best conference and currently sit at AP #4 and are in position for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Walter Clayton Jr. was deservedly named to the All-SEC first team and leads the team in scoring and assists. The Gators may have the best balance in the country: six different players have led the team in scoring, seven in rebounding, and six in assists. EvanMiya has five Gators in the top 100 in the country, and one in the top 10: reserve Thomas Haugh (#6). Florida is tied for second in the country in rebounds per game, and the addition of Micah Handlogten to the rotation late in the year (he has been recovering from a devastating leg injury suffered in last year’s SEC tournament for most of the year) only means this team is even stronger on the glass. They are also 10th in the country in rebounding margin. And KenPom ranks them as just one of two teams in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating (Duke is the other). The one criticism you could make of the Gators is that their non-conference schedule was not that challenging (a neutral court win against UNC is probably their best win), but we believe conference play more than prepared this team to make a deep NCAA tournament run.
Alabama is the three seed, and they are also in contention for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament: wins over Illinois (neutral), Houston (neutral), Creighton (home), Texas A&M (road), Kentucky (road), Kentucky again (home), and Auburn (road) will keep you in that conversation. But we are not fully convinced that this Crimson Tide squad is as good as the team Nate Oats brought to the Final Four last year. They come into the SEC tournament losers of 4 of their last 7, allowing a whopping 95.5 points per game in those four losses. They play at a breakneck pace (74.8 possessions per 40 minutes, tops in the country), average 91.2 points per game (also tops in the country, nearly 4 points higher than #2 Gonzaga, at 87.5 points per game), and 43.3 rebounds per game (also tops in the country). But their basketball philosophy will occasionally lead to bad decisions in terms of shot selection and turnovers (13.0 per game, with six regulars averaging at least 1.0 turnover per game). Their style certainly works for them, but we think they are more vulnerable than the top two seeds.
The Tennessee Vols come in as the #4 seed and are the antithesis to the Crimson Tide: sterling defensive play (#1 at KenPom), a deliberate pace (344th adjusted tempo), and solid ball security (10.6 turnovers per game). Chaz Lanier is their most reliable scorer (double digit outputs in 29 of 31 games) and shoots the three-ball at over 40%. Zakai Zeigler is the floor general who distributes the ball well on offense (7.5 assists per game) and sets the tone on defense (1.9 steals per game, Defensive Player of the Year). The rest of the roster is full of complementary players who know their roles well: Felix Okpara for rebounding and defense (6.3 rpg, 1.8 bpg), Jahmai Mashack for physical perimeter defense (1.6 spg, SEC All-Defensive team), and Jordan Gainey and Igor Milicic to support the two offensive playmakers (21 ppg combined). We are a little concerned with this team’s ability to score: they averaged just 63.7 points per game in their six losses on the season. And elite offenses can occasionally overwhelm the Vols, as evidenced by Kentucky’s regular season sweep.
Of seeds five through eight, we think the eight seed, the Ole Miss Rebels, is the most balanced between offense and defense (they rank in the top 30 nationally in both at KenPom). During the season, they proved they can beat elite teams (at Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee), but they also suffered through patches of average play, including two blowout losses in their last four games, to Auburn and Florida. We think the Rebels are good, but not elite.
Kentucky, on the other hand, certainly has high-end potential, and could make a run at this SEC title, and we think, maybe the national title. We would be much higher on the Wildcats, though, if Jaxson Robinson were healthy. Unfortunately, a wrist injury suffered in early February didn’t properly heal and required surgery, ending his season. They’ve still beaten the likes of Missouri and Tennessee without him, and the Wildcats piled up high quality wins throughout the season (Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida, Texas A&M, in addition to Missouri and the sweep of Tennessee). But some questionable losses to some bubble teams (Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Ohio State) give us pause about this team’s postseason prospects. It is critical that Lamont Butler is back from injury and leading this team, as he is easily their best defender (on a team that is average defensively, at best). He has struggled somewhat in the four games since the injury. They will need him to be fully healthy to fulfill their immense potential.
Here are our five players to watch (in no particular order):
Josh Hubbard, Mississippi State: Hubbard made a splash in the league last year and has continued to solidify his reputation as one of the more dangerous scorers in the league. Don’t be fooled by his inefficient shooting percentages: he takes every tough shot for the Bulldogs. In fact, he has taken 150 more shots than anyone else on his team! The Bulldogs are strong defensively, can rebound well, and protect the basketball. But they really cannot shoot (45% FG, 70% FT, 31% 3 PT FG). If they are going to make a run, they’re going to have to find the range. We think LSU in Round 1 and Missouri in Round 2 is the most favorable draw of teams playing in the first round, before Florida would await in the quarterfinals.
Caleb Grill, Missouri: The SEC Sixth-Man of the Year is quintessential “instant offense”: 14.2 ppg off the bench, shooting just under 50% from the field and 42.3% from three point land. Oh - and he’s not bad defensively, either: 1.7 steals per game for a Missouri team that averages 9.6, good for sixth in the country and tops in Power 5. Missouri is limping into the SEC tournament, though: losers of 4 of their last 5, with three of those losses (Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma) coming to teams playing in the first round of the SEC tournament. With wins against Kansas, Florida, and Alabama, it’s clear Missouri can beat top-level teams. And Grill off the bench is a weapon few teams have.
Grant Nelson, Alabama: Nelson reminds us a bit of Michigan’s Danny Wolf. He does a lot of good (12.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 52.5% FG), but you have to take the good with the bad (1.9 turnovers, 66.1% FT, 26.6% 3 PT FG, 2.7 fouls per game). If Nelson can play more under control and focus more on his paint play than his perimeter play, then we think Alabama can be Final Four good. Alabama has plenty of players who can score - they don’t have anyone who protects the rim as well as Nelson. We think if he picks his spots offensively and concentrates more on the defensive end, that could serve Alabama quite well.
Alex Condon, Florida: It has been a very strong season for the sophomore from Perth, Australia. We wish he were better from the charity stripe (just 62%), but he basically excels everywhere else, and he can stretch the floor at 6’11”, shooting 35% from three point range on the season. He blocks shots (1.4 per game) and rebounds quite well (8.0 rebounds in 25 mpg) and is a perfect fit for Florida’s scheme. The emergence of Condon and fellow sophomore Thomas Haugh (9.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg in 24 mpg) have us believing that the Gators are Final Four good.
Johni Broome, Auburn: The numbers are undeniable: 18.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 bpg, 50.6% FG. Auburn’s roster is chock full of solid wing players and interior defenders. And Broome is the star. We’d like to see him play closer to the basket (29.7% three point FG on 2.6 attempts per game) and leave the three point shooting to his teammates. At 6’10” 240, Broome is a physical nightmare for most teams. He could carry the Tigers to a National Championship.
Here are our best bets for the tournament! (Odds courtesy of Draftkings, current as of publication)
First round action:
Arkansas -2.5 over South Carolina (-118): The Razorbacks have shown a ton of grit the last month of the season. We think they have a win or two left in them. The Gamecocks have fallen just short plenty of times this season, and unfortunately we think they do one more time to end the season.
Georgia -2.5 over Oklahoma (-115): The Sooners are definitely the more desperate team, as we think the Bulldogs are now safely in the field of 68. But the Bulldogs have found another offensive gear in the last couple weeks and have become pretty dangerous (ask Florida). We think they’ll be able to score on this defense and pull away late.
Conference Tournament winner:
Tennessee (+600): The Vols almost got Auburn at their place in late January and held the Tigers to just 53 points, by far their lowest output of the season. If they can muster enough offense, they can get the Tigers. And they’ve beaten both Florida (holding the Gators to 44 points!) and Alabama from the other side of the bracket. With Auburn’s (+150) and Florida’s (+270) odds being a bit short, this is our favorite play for the tournament.
Thanks for reading this SEC conference tournament preview! Enjoy the madness, and stay tuned to our newsletter for the rest of our conference tournament preview series!